Implied odds, a re-cap off a hand from last year...

I was browsing through my computer at work and discovered some old files that I used to document my playing history when I was only working part time and playing a lot more poker... over the next couple of weeks I'll release them all. Today we are going to learn about Implied odds. 

A lot of people talk about pot odds in poker, what this means is what are the odds of you hitting your hand in relation to the bet size that you are faced with to call, in relation to the pot that you can win, because you can only win what is in the pot. For example you have a flush draw and are faced with a $50 bet on the flop into a $75 dollar pot. You are get the odds of 1.5:1 to call the bet to win 125 pot (75pot+ 50). You will hit your hand roughly 1/3 times, needing the bet you have to call to be 25 or less to make it profitable for you to continue with the hand. So you should fold. 

What implied odds relate to in the poker world, attaches a little bit of game theory to this equation, because it is taking into consideration of if I hit my hand can I get my opponents' stack into the pot to win the his whole stack? And if I do will it be worth it (His/her stack size/bet size/ will he call an all in, will he bet an all in, etc)? 

With hands like Flush draws, they are bit harder to get your opponents whole stack into because they are so obvious to them, but they also create bluffing opportunities as well. 

Here's a story to out line this factor of the game, that I reluctantly folded... 

$200 buy in No limit, blinds are $5 and $5

Implied odds calculating the correct odds.

The table is some what loose aggressive with, a couple of tight players and a couple of VERY loose players.

I’m dealt 8♣ 5♣ in the small blind.

With no raise preflop and 4 other limpers involved including the BB.

Flop comes:

8♥ 7♣ 5♥

I lead out 15 BB calls, UTG calls, cut off Calls, Button raises 55 all in.

I reasiase 155.

Bb folds, UTG after a  question of how much is it? He calls. Cut off folds.

The pot is now $165 in the main pot and $200 in the side. 

Total pot of $365

Turn brings 3♥

The board looked like this:

8♥ 7♣ 5♥ 3♥

I check, he bets out $175.

Now this is question on whether or not he has the hearts and the way he played the hand I believe he not only had hearts, but had the A♥ in there as well. So I’m getting a just under 2:1 on the main pot. If he has a flush I’m drawing slim, 4 outs, with one card to come, looking at about 8%. And for those odds it definitely not worth calling for. As if I call this bet I have to call a river bet, even if I don’t hit my Full. But this is of course he has a Flush.

So what I have to establish my implied odds, is if his stack is deep enough to see if I DO hit my full house whether its worth calling this $175 now only to get his whole stack in the middle.

“How much do you have behind?”

“Around $300” He answers. I have around 450 in my stack.  Ok now for the math.

There is 365 in the pot + 300 behind that I can win = 665

It’s going to cost me another $175 to win $665 total. And I’m only going to hit my hand roughly 8% of the time. So I will need about 10 : 1 odds to call this.

175/665 = 0.26315 or about 4:1. So, if he has the flush, it’s not the right call even if I were to hit. After a long debate about this I fold, believing that this guy had the nuts, and he wasn’t capable of this move if he didn’t.

The river brought the 5♦, I kick myself for throwing away the 5’s full. The all in player turns over AK, and the other player turns over A♥ 9♥ for the nut flush. My read was spot on and that’s about the only solace I take from the hand.

I would have won a nice pot, but I would not have won a big enough pot for me to make it worth it to call in the long run, because poker is a long term game, you want to be the player who feeds of the short term players. Looking at this hand a year on makes me still think I made the right lay down, of course if my read was off and the guy turned over a pair or something I would have been furious, but it was correct, he had the nuts, and I was drawing pretty slim against the high hand. 

A couple of hands later I picked up A♠ 9♠ on the button and rivered Aces up to clean up a $500 pot.

I left the night about $1400 up, form my initial buy in of $200. One of my best nights during this year. I have now had 11 straight cashes from playing this table (200 buy in- 5/5 blinds). This has happened during the month of April 2010 and have made over $7000 for a months part time work. If I can keep this up, who knows where it might take me. 

ANZPT Day 2

So I made to day two... Day 1 was a nightmare I finished with a very short stack of $13500, very short considering we all started with $20k. I was in long ball mode and I psyched myself all night to be going all in or folding. The very first hand I get dealt is AQ and it is my big blind. I'm happy, 3 limper's, I shove it in and rake in a nice little pot. I gave the big stack, who was also the small blind a lot of stick for not calling my shove with an Ace in his had, he had over 100 k, and my shove for the pot was well worth a call with an Ace in his hand for a chance to knock me out and rake in the pot.

This table is relatively soft, its been an orbit now and its only the short stacks that are creating the action, I've won another pot and I've built my stack up to a bit over 20k and I am pumped. I start to relax I've got 20 BB (big blinds) again, I can breath a sigh of relief!

I actually start to steal blinds and make a couple of plays with 3 bets (For those of you who do not know what a 3 bet is, it is a poker term the  Big blind is the first bet, a raise pre-flop is the second bet, and a 3 bet is a re-raise pre-flop, this can also lead to a 4, 5 bet as well). I three bet my QQ's but do not get called by an early position raiser.

A young player who was on my table on day one, leads out for a slightly smaller raise than the BB, I look down at KcJc, and stupidly I 3 bet an extra 2k on top, he shoves it on me. I can't believe I just wasted a pretty good hand, but hey he could of had AK there. I fold.

So my image at the table has been built up to be pretty aggresive, and now I'm waiting for the perfect spot when I actually get a hand. The blinds have just been bumped up to 500 - 1000 with a 200 ante, and I look down to A♠K♣ in my hole and from a middle position I sneakily make it 3 k to go.

The player on the dealer button, thinks for about 2 seconds and shoves his entire stack in for around 28, 000. Everyone folds back to me. I have about 27,000.

What can he have? AA, KK? Why would anyone in their right mind want to get me off the hand in a tournament worth over 200K when they are holding such a good hand pre-flop. They don't. No one who know's how to play poker would make such a silly raise there. Which means he hasn't got AA or KK. But does he have a pair? Quiet possible, and very likely.

The thing about AK, pre-flop usually when facing an all-in you are either a massive favourite, against any other AQ, AJ type of hand, or only a slight dog, against a pocket pair. In a tournament situation where chips are god, and utility of these chips are as well, when you are holding AK you should call. But quite often it take A LOT of balls to do so, when your tournament life is on the line, it can be quite daunting. What am I thinking of doing, calling with not even a pair?

I think this guy doesn't have a big pair at all, shoving all his chips in is pretty weak here. Trying to bully me out of the hand. I should call, so I did....

He rolls over A♣Q♣, I smile, a guy next to him says "Unlucky man, what a cooler."

It sure was, I'm a 70% favourite going into the hand. The pot is over 50,000 making whoever wins a nice size stack for the table that I was on.

The flop:

K♦J♥10♠

He just flopped the nuts. The absolute freaking NUTS! I go into the hand a massive favourite and he just hits a 1 in 98 hand.

The Turn:

J♦

Gives me some life.... I can now win with a K, or a J, or tie with the 3 remaining Q's that are left in the deck.

but the river brings the ultimate brick: 2♠, and I am out of the tournament.

Thanks for coming, see you later. Well it was a great experience, and I walk away pissed off for getting out. But I really can't be, I was in a situation where I needed chips, and was presented an opportunity to grab them, I took it. And got smacked down by lady luck for doing so, all part of the game. Roll with the punches.

A big thanks goes out to the guys that staked me and gave me this opportunity to play, hopefully next time we get a bit more luck on our side. Watch this space for more updates about my poker career in the future.

Cheers - SS

ANZPT Part 2: Enter Joe Hachem

So thats right Joe Hachem just sat down. No big deal, get over it. Its not as if you are playing against the best in the world, only one of the best! Any way, things end up being kinda cool he exchanges a bit of banter with the rest of the players and sure enough a hand comes along and its my Big Blind and he opens form middle position for 525. everyone has folded to me and I look down at J 9 off suit. The blinds at this stage are 100/200 with 25 ante, so there is enough in the pot to put up resistance and HELLO, I get to play heads up against Joe Hachem!

I call, he hasn't said much. Not yet anyway and the Flop brings 9♣ 8♠ 2♥.

I lead out, after a slight pause for 1050, about 2/3rd's of the pot, just to see what he does. He thinks and calls.
The turn brings the 10♣.

Pretty good card for me giving me an up n down a pair, I check with the intention of calling any bet, bit of pot control. He Checks behind

The river brings the ultimate scare card A♣. So the board reads 9♣ 8♠ 2♥10♣A♣. not the best board for my pair of nines.

Before I even think about acting Joe speaks, "You know kid, if you check I'm gonna bet right?" I simile I don't even think about my reply, all those years being a smart ass has finally paid off;
"Well you know if you bet I'm probably gonna call?" I reply.
"You do what you gotta do kid." He answers. I grin.

So I check, fun times ahead.

And sure enough he bets, 1500. Good bet, representing that Ace.

"I would never lie to you kid" he says in that high pitch voice, sort of a cross between Mike Tyson and Guido Hatiz, with a smile that makes me believe he's up to something. After about a minute of thinking what could he have, I call. He didn't bet the 10, and if he has an ace, whats he doing on the flop? Didn't make sense, and usually in poker if it doesn't make sense it ain't.

He turns over Q 7 off suit, complete air ball. And his check on the turn also made sense - having the double gut shot!

Calling Joe Hachem with a pair of nines with an Ace high board, 1500. Making him turn over the Air Ball and listening to him say: "You got it" - Priceless.

"I do, Joe - now pass that sugar!"

It was only a small pot, but probably one of the greatest poker moments in my life. It gave me the confidence to survive the day, trust my instincts and move to Day 2.

Joe eventually got out, he stayed short stacked the whole day trying to make some good plays but nothing seemed to go right for him.

He eventually ended up getting it all in on a flop of J♦ 5♦ 2♥, holding a pair of 10's in the hole. The small blind a guy to my left, I don't think he even knew who he knocked out, he check raised all in with his J 7 off suit. They were both short stacked and probably the right play was made by each seeing that draw heavy flop. But seeing a world champ go down to such a shit hand, really does confirm how much of a sick game poker can be. And in the words of Joe Hachem, "Poker is probably the only game where you can do everything right and still loose". Which leads me to my next post.... Day 2 stay tuned.....

ANZPT 2011 - Day 1 = the table of Death, Day 2 Heater and a Cooler part 1

Hey guys,

So you all might not of known this, but I competed in the ANZPT  during the past week. A bunch of guys, including my dad Simon Elderfield, and I all threw in a bunch of cash to put up the tournament entry. With around 400 entrants we always knew it was going to be a bit of a crap shoot. I ended coming 127th and only out due to a cooler of a hand. However, nothing could prepare me for what a nightmare day one turned out to be.

All I was thinking before getting on the tables was I really hope I don't get put on Jonathan Karamalarkis' table. And sure enough after sitting down Monster Dong himself takes a seat in position 10. Not only that but we were also accompanied with 2010 Sydney Champ and proclaimed online poker phenomenal Daniel Nielson.  As the play began I knew I was going to be in for a roller coaster of a first day. But I could not let these aggressive player's run over me and the only way I was going to do this was by making a stand. Play kicked off, but there was one seat remaining, seat 9.

I managed to successfully bluff Jono, the hand went like this. I had be quiet for a few rounds pretty card dead only defending blinds when someone else had entered the pot. Any way it was Jono's BB and I thought fuck it lets see what he has got. So I raised it, at this time the blinds were 75/150. I made it 450 from middle positon, One person had limped in front of me and both him and Jono called. The flop cam 2♥ 5♦ 6♥.  and Jono leads out 600. Pretty standard I thought, he's playing his position, the limper folds, and I'm thinking there could be a strong possibility he has a 6 but he could also have nothing. Lets see what a raise does to him. I make it $1725, he thinks for about 5 seconds and mucks. Pulling that bluff gave me a lot of confidence to continue my game.

My next big hand, I had to fold. It was probably the biggest fold of my life top 2 pair on the flop. People thought I was mad, but I was later confirmed by Daniel Nielson that I had made the right fold even though it might not have been correct. The blinds were 100/200. I'm in middle position and get dealt J 10 off suit, with one player also limping in front of me I also limp as does Daniel, two to my left in the high Jack, every one else folds back to the BB, who raises is to 550, the early position calls, I call so does Daniel.

The Flop: 5 J 10 rainbow

Both the BB and the early position check, I lead out to 1100, roughly half the pot, J 10 on the board always makes it pretty draw heavy, even through I have top two pair. After about a 30 seconds of thinking Daniel, who is next to act raises my bet to 3200. Both the BB and the early position, get out of the way quicker than lighting. And I feel my heart beating, finally I got this guy. I'm about to pick up a stack of 8 thousand, but I pause and look over at him. He's not giving much away, what do I know about this guy, why would he raise me there? Surely he has an Up n down and is trying to buy the pot. But just a second, think about it, he limped from a late position with KQ? That's not his style, that's not any aggressive player's style.... and what does he put you on? Maybe he is putting you on an up n down like KQ and thinking YOU are trying to buy the pot.

I repeat to myself, What do I know about this guy?  I had just played a hand with him where I continued on a Q high board from my pre-flop raise and he only Flat called me with QJ in his hand. We both checked when a K hit on that turn and he value bet his Q on the river, he doesn't know I called him down that hand with Ace high - just to see his cards. So he's not into raising with just top pair - not at this stage of the tourney at least.

What sort of hands do good players limp with and call raises with pre-flop? Pairs, little pairs. He could also have Q9 suited, that would make sense with the hand. I don't think he has the KQ there, not with the limp pre-flop. And for him to raise me, he either has Air or I think he has a monster. He could also have J 10 as well, but, because I've got J 10, this is the least likely scenario.

I flat call his raise. It may be telling him that I have a hand and I'm not going down with out a fight, it may just be telling him that I do not like to be bluffed. The turn brings K♣ but puts 2 clubs out there. If he did have the Q9 he just got there. If he has the set, he needs to bet more now to protect his hand. If I bet here, and he has the set, I think he'll shove it on me. If I check and he check's I could spike the J or 10 for my boat. Not knowing what to do, and beginning to think that this is more and more fishy I check. After a long minute Dan bets 4500. That's about 2/3 of the pot. He wants my chips, I don't think he is bluffing here.

I fold. That's right I folded top two pair. WTF? I didn't feel it, and I went with my gut.

I later became good friends with Daniel Nielson, and he confirmed he indeed did have 55 (the set of 5's), but also thought I was mad to fold top two there. Jono, knowing what we both had, thought, Dan's bet was a bit much getting me to fold. And it was, but only against me. Anyone else, I think, it wouldn't of gotten to the turn, all the chips would have gone in on the flop. Which is what he wanted. I gave myself a pat on the back for making the perfect play, even though it might not have been the correct one.

Enter Joe Hachem.... that's right Joe "I'm mother flipin World Champ" Hachem. Like it was scripted Joe sit's down in Seat 9....